At its August 19 meeting, the SCERS Retirement Board approved several updates to the actuarial assumptions used to determine employer and employee contribution rates, including changes related to mortality and salary projections. The Board, however, declined to adopt its actuary’s recommendation to reduce the assumed long-term investment return—also known as the discount rate—from 6.75% to 6.50%.
As part of its regular governance process, the Sacramento County Employees’ Retirement System (SCERS) conducts a comprehensive review of its actuarial assumptions every three years. [Read the Board item here.]
The assumed investment return is an important component in determining how much must be contributed to fund future pension benefits. A lower investment return assumption means that a greater share of future benefit costs must be funded through employer and employee contributions rather than anticipated investment earnings.
SCERS was 94% funded as of June 30, 2025. At the August meeting, the Board also received a preliminary report that the investment portfolio earned 14.8% for fiscal year 2025–26, bringing the approximately $16 billion retirement system closer to full funding.
The funded ratio represents the relationship between the system’s assets and its long-term pension obligations. A system that is 100% funded has sufficient assets, based on its actuarial assumptions, to meet its projected benefit obligations.
The Board will review its actuarial assumptions again in 2029. In the meantime, SCERS will continue to monitor its long-term liquidity and cash flow needs as its membership demographic profile matures and the number of retirees receiving benefits grows relative to the number of active members contributing to the system. Over time, these trends could require SCERS to adjust its investment strategy and reduce portfolio risk.
For now, however, the Board determined that the case for lowering the investment return assumption was not compelling enough to justify the resulting increase in employer and employee contribution rates.
Under the actuary’s recommendation, a 6.50% investment return assumption was estimated to provide a 62% likelihood of achieving or exceeding the assumed return in a given year. Based on current capital market assumptions, maintaining the 6.75% assumption provides an estimated 58% likelihood.
While a lower investment return assumption would provide a larger cushion against the potential effects of future market losses, SCERS will also examine other approaches to strengthening its financial position. These may include increasing reserves and moderating the pace of contribution-rate reductions as the system moves closer to full funding.
The Retirement Board will review and approve contribution rates for fiscal year 2027–28 at its December 16, 2026, meeting. Minor changes in contribution rates may result from the assumption updates approved by the Board, as well as the annual actuarial experience and investment results.